Podium probability
The model's estimated chance that a driver or rider finishes in the top three.
Each driver on a race page carries a podium probability. It is derived from the spread of plausible outcomes around the expected finishing position, so a driver predicted fourth with a wide spread can still carry a meaningful podium chance.
Because these are probabilities rather than picks, they are checked for calibration: across many races, the drivers given a 30% podium chance should reach the podium roughly 30% of the time.