DNF risk

The estimated probability that a driver or rider does not finish the race.

DNF stands for Did Not Finish: a retirement through mechanical failure, accident or disqualification. RaceModel estimates it per driver from reliability history, recent incidents, circuit characteristics and grid position (first-lap contact is far more likely from the midfield).

DNF risk is modelled separately from finishing position and then folded into it. A driver with strong pace and a high DNF risk has a lower expected finishing position than pace alone would suggest.

Other terms

• Brier score
• Calibrated probability
• Expected value (EV)
• Finishing order prediction
• Frozen prediction
• Kelly criterion
• Leave-one-race-out validation
• Mean absolute error (MAE)
• Model version
• Podium hit rate
• Podium probability