Podium hit rate

The share of predicted podium places that turned out to be correct.

Each race the model names three drivers for the podium. Each of those who actually finishes in the top three counts as a hit. Hit rate is hits divided by attempts across all scored races.

It is a coarse measure on its own, so RaceModel publishes it alongside MAE: a model can score podium hits while being badly wrong about the rest of the field, and MAE catches that.

Other terms

• Brier score
• Calibrated probability
• DNF risk
• Expected value (EV)
• Finishing order prediction
• Frozen prediction
• Kelly criterion
• Leave-one-race-out validation
• Mean absolute error (MAE)
• Model version
• Podium probability