Expected value (EV)

What a bet is worth on average, given the model's probability and the bookmaker's odds.

If the model puts a driver's win chance at 25% and the market offers odds implying 20%, the bet has positive expected value: over many such bets you would come out ahead. Negative EV means the market's price is better than the model's.

RaceModel shows EV per market on the betting view for subscribers. It is an analytical figure, not a recommendation; a positive EV bet still loses most of the time when the probability is small.

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